MODELING THE GROWTH RATE OF FRUIT AND VEGETABLE EXPORTS IN SURKHANDARYA REGION USING A LOGISTIC DIFFERENTIAL ECONOMETRIC MODEL

The study is devoted to modeling the growth rate of fruit and vegetable exports in Surkhandarya region using a logistic differential econometric approach. Export dynamics are considered as a nonlinear process with a saturation limit determined by market capacity, production potential, and logistics constraints. The evolution of export volume is described by the following differential equation:
 
where - is the export volume at time , -is the intrinsic growth coefficient, and -​ represents the maximum potential export capacity of the region.