MONITORING OF GREEN COVER CHANGES AND FOREST INDICATORS IN THE BROAD-LEAVED FORESTS OF WESTERN TIEN-SHAN USING MODERN ANALYTICAL APPROACHES

The broad-leaved forests of the Western Tien-Shan, located within the UNESCO World Heritage-listed Ugam-Chatkal Biosphere Reserve, represent relict ecosystems of high ecological importance. However, these forests are increasingly affected by anthropogenic and climatic pressures, including overgrazing, illegal logging, recreational disturbance, rising temperatures, and prolonged droughts, which threaten forest structure, biodiversity, and regeneration processes. This study presents a three-year (2024–2026) integrated monitoring assessment of vegetation dynamics and forest condition in the Qoronqul forest section, Bostanliq District, Tashkent Region, Uzbekistan. The methodological framework combined field phenological observations, biometric measurements, permanent sample plot monitoring, NDVI-based remote sensing, and GIS statistical analysis. The results indicate significant ecosystem degradation. Species richness declined from 52–55 to 8–10 taxa, while herbaceous cover decreased from 90–100% to 20–30%. NDVI classification showed that 64% of the area remained relatively healthy, whereas 20% was open land, 10–11% degraded, and about 5% critically affected. Big topographic differences in regeneration were observed: northern slopes showed higher regeneration (55–60%) and seedling density (>1,100 ind./ha), compared to southern slopes (5–10% and ~120 ind./ha) due to moisture and thermal stress. Forest productivity indicators confirmed degradation, including low biomass increment (0.25–0.35 t/ha/year), reduced canopy closure (0.6), and poor site quality (Class IV). Phenological shifts of 7–20 days indicated high sensitivity to climate variability. The study highlights hidden degradation processes where structurally altered ecosystems persist despite stable NDVI signals. Results support sustainable forest management through grazing regulation, regeneration enhancement, slope-specific restoration, and long-term GIS monitoring.